The world is changing rapidly. Some domestic brands have also closed their domestic business and started overseas business.
When it comes to global e-cigarettes, there has been a rapid growth rate in the past three years. Among them, the two major electronic cigarettes, atomized electronic cigarette and HNB (heat not burn), are the most important forms of electronic cigarettes in the world. Compared with domestic electronic cigarettes, the difference between liquid atomization and solid state, overseas HNB development is extremely rapid, and the annual growth rate exceeds 60%, which is much higher than the 20-30% growth rate of atomized electronic cigarettes.
△ E-cigarettes go abroad to win glory
It is also because of the "crazy wave" of global e-cigarettes that China's e-cigarette export sales increased significantly last year, and exceeded 130 billion in one fell swoop, which is more than 20 times that of the domestic market.
Perspective of the global e-cigarette status and data,
Big space of hundreds of billions of dollars in the future!
The global electronic cigarette is in the era of coexistence of big cigarettes and small cigarettes. Like some overseas countries, 300-watt vape products still exist, but the country has already fully evolved to the era of pod vape hegemony.
In terms of policy, overseas policies are relatively broad compared to domestic ones, but there are still gaps. Some areas are controlled, and some areas are also improving. In terms of e-cigarette control, North America, Europe, Southeast Asia, and even Japan in the Asia-Pacific region have good room for development.
It can be seen that the overseas market presents two major characteristics of product differences and different policies.
Electronic cigarettes are mainly distributed in countries. At present, in the overseas market, the e-cigarette market in the United States, the United Kingdom, France, Italy, Germany, Russia, Canada, Poland, Australia, Indonesia, Japan, Egypt, Malaysia, South Korea and other countries is relatively good. The new data also shows that the United States is the largest e-cigarette market with a value of US$10.3 billion (equivalent to more than 60 billion yuan), followed by Western Europe at US$6.6 billion, Asia Pacific (US$4.4 billion) and Eastern Europe (US$1.6 billion). Smaller markets were the Middle East and Africa at $490 million; Latin America at $122 million; and Oceania at $118 million. About 36% are in North America, 30% in the EU, and 20% in Asia Pacific.
From the perspective of export data, my country's electronic cigarettes increase by more than 20% every year, or even as high as 60%. iiMedia Research also predicts that the growth rate of China's export of electronic cigarettes will be 63.4% in 2022, and the market size will reach 165.88 billion yuan.
According to a report released by Allied Market Research, from 2021 to 2027, the global tobacco market is expected to reach 262.8 billion US dollars, especially the compound annual growth rate of electronic cigarettes will be considerable.
In terms of global scale, the global e-cigarette market has rapidly increased from US$12.4 billion in 2014 to US$35.2 billion in 2019 at a CAGR of 24.2%, and is expected to further grow at a CAGR of 24.9% to 2023. $86.7 billion, and then $111.5 billion in 2024.
△ Global e-cigarette forecast scale (from iiMedia forecast)
According to iiMedia Research, the retail scale of the global atomized electronic cigarette industry will reach US$42.44 billion in 2022, and the retail scale of the global atomized HNB industry will reach US$31.37 billion. This indicates that the retail scale of the two major global e-cigarette products is expected to exceed 100 billion US dollars (equivalent to nearly 700 billion yuan) in the next few years. And it is expected that in 2024, the market size of Europe and the United States will account for 76% of the market, and it is still the main consumption area.
From the point of view of e-cigarette users, the number of e-cigarette users in the world has exceeded 80 million, which is a leap of cosmic energy compared to 7 million users in 2011. Most of them are located in North America, Western Europe, and some countries in emerging markets.
It is true that global e-cigarette consumers only account for less than 10% of the number of smokers (this year's data mentioned that there are 82 million e-cigarette users in the world), and the market penetration in the future is amazing.
"Harm reduction" and strong demand for tobacco substitution,
Deeply cultivate the global and regional precision market, and quickly grasp new opportunities!
When the situation has not changed, an open overseas market is a new opportunity.
It is expected that global e-cigarettes will show several trends in the future based on the "harm reduction" of e-cigarettes and the "demand" of tobacco replacement.
1. Harm reduction is an eternal trend.
From the perspective of e-cigarette control departments in various countries, the harm reduction and injury degree of e-cigarettes are highly concerned.
Regulatory agencies such as the US FDA, at the same time as the (PMTA) approval, put forward the first condition to "prove the degree of harm reduction of electronic cigarette products compared to traditional tobacco". This year, the approval conditions are for the rapid release of tobacco flavors, and there is still a rejection of products such as fruit flavors and mint flavors, including synthetic nicotine products.
At the same time, judging from the current attitudes of regulators in various countries, the first concern when referring to e-cigarettes is the health harm of e-cigarettes to young people and the impact on minors and students. Whether to allow the sale of electronic cigarettes is the final decision.
In fact, from the rise of electronic cigarettes in 2003, to the crazy overseas boom in 2009, and then to the crazy waves of capital in 2019, this process has all reflected the evolution of the "harm reduction" trend elements of electronic cigarettes. From big smoke to small smoke, to nicotine content, and the ban on the taste of electronic cigarettes.
To illustrate, globally, traditional tobacco consumption generally requires smoking cessation. Harm reduction is the core appeal of tobacco evolution, and it is also the "core" that national regulatory authorities focus on. At the same time, it is also seen that for this purpose, many overseas electronic cigarette leaders are seeking product transformation, which also reflects the strong demand for harm reduction products.
2. Disposable electronic cigarettes will still be the mainstream, and refillable electronic cigarettes need to be paid attention to.
At present, overseas disposable electronic cigarettes have exceeded 10 billion market share. In the short term, disposable e-cigarettes will continue to grow wildly overseas. Smol International, a leading e-cigarette manufacturer whose overseas revenue accounts for more than 70% of its revenue, stated at this year's press conference that Smol's new business line will be commercialized within a year, and this also includes disposable e-cigarette products. Qiu Lingyun, vice president of the Smol Group, also said that "this year's confidence in performance growth is mainly due to the steady growth of overseas business and the incremental growth brought by the upcoming launch of innovative businesses such as disposable products in overseas markets."
From the perspective of the global trend of electronic cigarette equipment, the volume of closed electronic cigarette equipment has increased, and the volume of open electronic cigarette equipment has increased. The atomization structure of consumption will also lead to the demand for different types of electronic cigarettes.
SMOORE data also shows that currently 30% of the world is closed electronic atomization equipment, 18% are open electronic atomization equipment, and the rest are special-purpose electronic atomization equipment. Closed electronic cigarette equipment will gradually become the protagonist of the market. Its proportion has risen sharply from 12% in 2014 to more than 40%, and may exceed 70-80% in the future. However, in some countries, there are many open e-cigarettes, such as the United Kingdom, where 67.0% of e-cigarette sales come from open e-cigarettes.
Of course, because of the popularity of closed electronic atomization equipment, the cartridge-replaceable electronic cigarette has the opportunity to grow. For example, most of Southeast Asia are refillable electronic cigarettes, and 60% of domestically produced refillable products are exported to this. However, in terms of usage habits, refillable electronic cigarettes still need a cultivation process overseas. After all, a recent news has attracted attention. Myblu, the fourth e-cigarette in the United States, has been rejected by the FDA for sale. It is very likely that some bomb-changing devices with harmful features will be difficult to enter the US market.
3. HNB is a surging trend overseas.
HNB is almost banned in China. Except for HNB equipment, or herbal heat not burn, HNB containing tobacco is banned.
On the contrary, in Europe, America and Japan, which are developed abroad, HNB has a broad market. And this trend will increase, mainly due to the heavy dependence on nicotine among heavy tobacco users in these regions.
The data also shows that since 2018, the compound growth rate of the global HNB market has been 58.4%, which is much higher than the compound growth rate of atomized electronic cigarettes, indicating that this consumption trend is fierce.
Philip Morris International is a global HNB giant with a total of 17.6 million IQOS users, more than all e-cigarette users in China. Especially in Japan, the most developed country, 30% of smokers have completed the conversion to HNB products, and Philip Morris International also announced that it will stop selling cigarettes in Japan within 10 years, the purpose is to promote the "full conversion" of cigarettes to HNB . Of course, Japan's own Japan Tobacco International (JTI) giant, which is rich in HNB-type products.
It is expected that with the support of HNB from countries such as Europe, America and Japan, HNB will continue to develop wildly in the market. Domestic Smol also regards HNB (heating not burning) as one of the all-round atomization layouts.
Fourth, differentiated global markets, as well as differentiated product market changes.
At present, Chinese e-cigarettes are sold well in more than 200 countries around the world, but the aggregation is still longing for countries in North America, Europe, Eastern Europe, and Southeast Asia.
However, as e-cigarettes are constrained by frequently changing policies in various places, it is a trend to tighten regulations on e-cigarettes in various countries, but at the same time, there is also a pattern of changes such as repeated partial relaxation or partial repeated tightening.
Take Southeast Asia as an example. There are more than 600 million people in Southeast Asia, but in fact, most of the 11 countries have bans on e-cigarettes, but e-cigarettes still occupy seats in these emerging markets. It shows that local changes still exist, and in this context, opportunities naturally exist. At the same time, the relocation of some domestic manufacturers to Southeast Asia also brings opportunities for the prosperity of e-cigarettes in the region. A news this year pointed out that some domestic e-cigarette manufacturers are "relocating", and this destination is overseas Southeast Asia, the number is still more than 20, and there are many leading companies. In particular, Southeast Asian countries such as Malaysia, Indonesia, the Philippines, and Vietnam can be described as a new round of electronic cigarette gathering places. Like Indonesia with a population of nearly 300 million, there are about 200 manufacturers and traders of new tobacco products here, and electronic cigarette exhibitions are often held here, which shows the heat of the market.
At the same time, the United Kingdom, the European Union, and some countries in Southeast Asia have few bans on flavors, and multiple flavors are still in the mainstream market. These provide a large space for promoting the differentiated market of global e-cigarettes, and also provide opportunities for differentiated products.
What I want to say here is that the "tobacco-like management" of the global e-cigarette market must be the general trend, and the changes will be very fast, so we need to embrace the opportunity as soon as possible!
The global electronic cigarette is still in a period of brilliant and rapid development. The compound growth rate of electronic cigarette retail sales and the penetration rate to cigarette smokers are still important reference indicators for the market! In the context of domestic e-cigarettes being included in "compliance", it is an inevitable trend for Chinese e-cigarette manufacturers to accelerate their overseas expansion. The overseas market will also expand more space under the centralized attack of the electronic cigarette production and supply chain. However, reducing the harm of e-cigarettes globally and moving towards health will become a major mainstream in the future. Serving the needs of more than 1 billion traditional smokers around the world will be the greatest aspirational value of e-cigarettes at present!
